Brief Summary
Snow panorama on Mt McKenzie, near Tenterfield NE NSW
© 2007 James Chambers - View the Snow Chase Gallery for this event by James Chambers.
From 2007 June 05 to 10, a cold pool moved from the Southern Ocean N over Victoria and NSW while developing a strong upper level circulation that interacted with a topical moisture plume moving southeast over Queensland dumping decent rains in SE Qld, then it moved east over northern NSW / southern Qld, spawning a severe East Coast Low (Sub-Tropical Cyclone) that battered and drenched coastal NSW.
The severe weather from this event caused a ship to run aground at Nobby's beach near Newcastle and a major flood event unfolded on much of the NSW mid-coast region causing at least 9 deaths, while heavy snow falls in the NSW highlands extended all the way north to the Queensland border, with some reports of sleet and falling snow in SE Qld.
Visit ABC Newcastle for:
Photo Gallery of the grounded bulk carrier Pasha Bulker
Links to news items and flood photo galleries
Tuesday June 5
The June 5 00Z IR Satellite image shows tropical moisture moving southeast across Queensland and a Bight High directing very cold air from the Southern Ocean northwards onto the eastern half of the south coast of Australia, setting the scene for what was to unfold.
Wednesday June 6
The June 6 00Z IR Satellite image shows tropical moisture continuing to move southeast across Queensland into the northwestern Tasman and the very cold air from the Southern Ocean now starting to develop an upper circulation over the NSW-SA border region, with the northern part of the cool air starting to interact with the southern part of the tropical moisture plume, and a low moving offshore near Rockhampton in Central Qld, with some decent falls of rain in parts of drought ravaged SE and Central Qld.
As things began unfolding on June 6, Michael Bath posted this analysis in the Australia Severe Weather forums:
This rainfall event for SE QLD and NE NSW was forecast on the extended GFS charts for two weeks and even the long-range forecast based on the long wave trough (LWT) positions picked it up three or four weeks ago.
A very large slow moving high has anchoring in the Bight. An upper cold pool has drifted north over Victoria and into NSW and has helped to trigger a rain band over Queensland and induce a surface trough and low off the Queensland coast overnight.
Model output has been confused about where a surface coastal low would form, but all now seem to be tipping the development of a fairly intense east coast low moving down the NSW coastline. Locally moderate to heavy rainfalls can be expected over SE Queensland and along the NSW coast to the Hunter.
Another interesting aspect of this event is how cold the upper cold pool is. Snowfalls and sleet are distinct possibilities along the Northern Tablelands and even into the Granite Belt of SE QLD Friday and Saturday morning.
Michael
Thursday June 7
The June 7 00Z IR Satellite image shows the tropical moisture plume running south along the eastern side of a trough that developed just off the NE NSW coast, and wrapping around the upper circulation and cold pool over northern NSW. As the day progressed, winds were becoming stronger and heavy rains began falling along the mid-NSW coast in the onshore flow, with decent snowfalls on the southern highlands of NSW.
Friday June 8
The June 8 00Z IR Satellite image shows a large complex area of low pressure has developed over the NW Tasman Sea, with tropical moisture being drawn across the NSW coast and wrapping around the upper circulation and cold pool over northern NSW. Strong winds batterered the central NSW coast causing a ship to run aground near Newcastle, heavy rains caused havoc washing away roads causing some deaths, and heavy snowfalls developed over the adjacent highlands as the day progressed.
Late evening, a cyclonic circulation with a well defined eye developed off Newcastle and raced ashore between Newcastle and the Williamtown RAAF Base - Michael Bath saved these BoM Newcastle Radar loops showing the subtropical cyclone coming ashore with quite a nice signature on radar: 128km 256km
Michael Bath also posted the following NE NSW snow pics in various forums:
Wow, what a great snow chase event ! Feel privileged to have witnessed one of the biggest snowfall events near Tenterfield - and it was great to have model output forecasts verified. I still cannot understand why the BoM had no mention of snow in their Northern Tablelands forecasts (and Northwest Slopes) until the 4pm issue when it was already underway.
Was rather cold although the temp didn't drop below about 0.5 C the whole time despite the many hours of snow.
Initial dump of snow at the summit of Mt McKenzie (1285m):
© Michael Bath 2007
© Michael Bath 2007
At about 1150m elevation here, when we met up with AC, Sercy and James. Snow fight was great fun, especially with the light powdery snow not causing any real damage.
© Michael Bath 2007
© Michael Bath 2007
Some YouTube Videos from Newcastle:
Ship Aground Rescue - the first two minutes of this video are quite compelling viewing!
Newcastle NSW 30 year storm 9/6/07 - this one raises the question "What kind of half-wit drives around in those conditions with one hand one the steering wheel and a handycam in the other, with kids in the car?"
Newcastle Ship a shore and Hunter St under water - I note from the soundtrack that the city part of this was 9:30pm, before the cyclonic system came through! Language warning: you may not want your kids listening to the soundtrack!
ABC News Reports:
Saturday June 9
The June 9 00Z IR Satellite image shows the large upper cold pool circulation moving offshore into the NW Tasman with the surface low now becoming more consolidated beneath it. Strong winds and heavy rains continue to batter and drench the central NSW coast.
Some more pics from Michael Bath taken on the return trip from the previous nights snow chase:
The scene this morning at the Mt McKenzie summit, and on the way down - it was a very long 2km drive to get out of the fallen branches and trees !!!!
© Michael Bath 2007
© Michael Bath 2007
© Michael Bath 2007
© Michael Bath 2007
Certainly the best snow I've seen on the Northern Tablelands.
ABC News Reports:
And a YouTube Video:
Sunday June 10
The June 10 00Z IR Satellite image shows the system moving further out into the Tasman. Strong winds and heavy rains begin to ease as it moves away, however major flooding causes serious problems in many central NSW communities.
You can also see more cold weather coming up from the Southern Ocean - this later also created more problems for the central NSW coast, with another East Coast Low forming off Newcastle generating more strong winds and heavy rains for the already battered communities on June 15 and 16.
ABC News Reports:
Discussion Forum Threads
WeatherZone:
NSW Cold Pool and Surface Low 5-12 June 2007 [OBS]
NSW Cold Pool and Surface Low 5-12 June 2007 [FCST/RPTS]
NE NSW/SE QLD Snow Potential June 8 - 10
Australian Severe Weather:
Severe East Coast Low and Upper Cold Pool: Flooding and Snow 5th to 11th June 2007.
Extracts from forum posts:
The forum threads above include many photos, such as this one posted in WeatherZone, from the highlands in the far N of NSW showing the rather heavy simultaneous snow event that came with the cold pool part of the system:
Snow panorama on Mt McKenzie, near Tenterfield NE NSW
© 2007 James Chambers - View the Snow Chase Gallery for this event by James Chambers.
Michael Bath made a good coloured IR satpic animation posted in WeatherZone:
I've put together an infrared satpic loop from 10am Tues 5th to 10pm Sat 9th June. File size is about 4.8mb.
It shows most of the earlier rain band that gave the Queensland coast its good falls, then the east coast low and upper cold pool.
The upper low / cold pool can be traced back on the satpics to the morning of 31st May, but the loop gets a bit long.
Regards, Michael
[Update: Micheal made the set of BoM images in the animation above into a java animation page with various controls.]
Michael also made another satellite image loop posted in Australian Severe Weather:
Australia-wide infrared satpic loop from 11am Mon 4th to 10am Sun 10th June. File size is about 14.6mb.
All my snow pics for the event are here:
[Update: I applied a custom colour table to a set of greyscale Australia-wide infrared images from the BoM as an enhancement, and Micheal has uploaded them and put together another java animation page to display them - warning: large loop - broadband recommended.]
Michael saved model output from GFS and TWC Mesocast for the 8th June 00z run - click on the links for loops:
GFS Analysis and 24 hour forecast in 6 hour increments:
GFS Snow levels / GFS RH 700 / GFS Temp 850 / GFS Temp 500
TWC Analysis and 24 hour forecast in 3 hour increments:
TWC RH 850 / TWC RH 700 / TWC Temp 850 / TWC Temp 500
Also, from this WeatherZone post by "Rain - Very Welcome":
The daily fall of 112.2mm on 9th June 2007 at Ob Hill is the highest for any June since 1991 (150.6mm on the 11th).
Rainfall recorded during the past 7 days:-
Mangrove Mountain 461mm
Gosford 388mm
Newcastle 333mm
Clarence Town 307mm
Cessnock 265mm
Katoomba 191mm
Sydney 188mm
Prospect Dam 131mm
Maitland 109mm
Mudgee 76mm
Warragamba 50mm
Gunnedah 28mm
© C.B.Smith 2007 - All rights reserved.
All photos used with permission of the copyright owners.